Lumina Foundation Sets Ambitious Goal for Educational Attainment
Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran / The Boston Globe / Getty Images- A new initiative from the Lumina Foundation sets a goal of 75% of working adults having a college degree or other credential by 2040.
- Public trust in higher education has eroded, leading to shrinking college enrollments.
- Lumina’s metrics include ROI measures, not just credential attainment.
- The foundation’s tactics for achieving this goal remain vague.
We’re only halfway through the 2020s, and the Lumina Foundation is already thinking about 2040.
By then, the private foundation hopes 75% of working adults — Americans ages 25-64 — will have college degrees or “other credentials of value leading to economic prosperity.”
That’s the headline from Lumina’s new initiative titled “Goal 2040: A Stronger Nation and a Brighter Future.”
Lumina Goal Measures ROI
This isn’t the first time Lumina has thrown down the educational achievement gauntlet. In 2008, the foundation established a goal of having 60% of working adults hold degrees or other credentials by 2025.
It fell just short of that goal. Today, this figure is 55%, yet it did rise from 38% in 2008 when the foundation began its crusade.
But this latest effort features a new wrinkle. Instead of simply measuring degree and credential attainment for its own sake, the foundation has added the “of value” stipulation.
“Value” in this case means degrees or other credentials leading to wages at least 15% above the national average for adults with only a high school diploma. In other words, this time Lumina is adding return on investment (ROI) as a condition of goal attainment.
“Higher education can provide solutions, but trust in colleges and universities has declined,” Lumina says. “To rebuild that trust, we must ensure that education delivers real value — helping people earn higher wages, secure stable jobs, and feel confident about their futures.”
The 15% earnings boost is just the beginning for Lumina, which promises to “develop better ways to measure economic prosperity over time.”
Considering the waning trust Lumina refers to, is boosting enrollment rates even feasible? Last year, a Gallup poll found that 32% of Americans have little or no confidence in higher education, and another 32% only have some confidence.
And favorable opinions have deteriorated. In less than a decade, the percentage of Americans who hold colleges in high esteem has dropped by about 37%.
Such sentiments are borne out in enrollment trends. Even though college enrollments have rebounded recently, undergraduate numbers still fall below pre-pandemic totals and are well shy of figures from 2011, when the downward trajectory began.
In 2024, U.S. colleges enrolled roughly 16 million undergraduates, about 2 million fewer than in 2011.
The percentage of high school graduates going straight to college has declined. In 2016, 70% of students did, and by 2022, that figure had dropped to 62%.
Of course, the nation today faces a demographic cliff promising to reduce the number of college-age students by 15% over the next four years.
So dramatically growing the college degree-holding population might prove to be an uphill battle, to say the least.
The good news is that increasing numbers of the approximately 40 million adults with some college credits but no credential are returning to school, auguring well for goals tied to degree completion.
In addition, dual enrollment — high school students taking college courses — continues to gain popularity, which could boost enrollments if colleges can figure out how to use this pathway to attract students not otherwise heading to college anyway.
Accounting for Alternative Credentials
The key here, though, is the notion of credentials or certificates, not simply degrees. Lumina doesn’t necessarily expect the percentage of adults with bachelor’s degrees to rise dramatically; in light of the aforementioned trends, such expectations would appear Pollyannaish.
Instead, it’s banking on the continued surge in popularity of short-term credentials, including certificates, certifications, badges, and microdegrees. According to Credential Engine, U.S. providers alone offer nearly 1.1 million types of credentials.
Because they’re often closely aligned with workforce needs, leading to employment and career advancement, short-term credentials have become increasingly desired. From 2010-2021, the number of certificates awarded by public colleges and universities increased by almost 30%.
Still, to count toward Lumina’s 75% goal, the non-baccalaureate credential has to provide a 15% boost over the average wage for high school graduates. Based on Lumina’s research, that’s not the case for 42% of short-term credential holders.
It’s also not the case for almost 30% of bachelor’s degree-holders, suggesting the value proposition remains weak for millions of adults with four-year degrees.
All told, in 2023 roughly 44% of working-age adults in the U.S. workforce had degrees, certificates, or certifications and earned at least 15% more than the average high school graduate. That’s a far cry from 75%.
The ROI for college graduates varies by race and ethnicity as well. While 42% of white and 53% of Asian American degree-holders in the workforce earn above that 15% threshold, the same is true for only 27% of Black and 20% of Hispanic degree-holders.
Tactics for Achieving Goal Remain Vague
How, then, does Lumina plan to achieve its ambitious goal? On that score, the foundation is somewhat vague.
It discusses a series of short-term goals it hopes to achieve by 2029, including refining its long-term vision and launching “new initiatives to break down barriers to education.” The foundation also intends to “invest in innovative programs, collaborate with national leaders, and push for policy improvements to help more Americans achieve their education and career goals.”
More specifically, Lumina aims to make college more affordable by “listening to students, evaluating policies, and promoting solutions”; assessing credential value by helping as many as 10 states create “better plans for ensuring long-term prosperity”; and measuring economic prosperity by developing ways to determine “how different education and training levels benefit individuals after high school.”
Tactically speaking, Lumina will “focus the foundation’s efforts and look to leaders and partners within and outside of education and training systems to develop innovative, scalable ideas.”
All this adds up to a confession that Lumina hopes to figure things out through continued conversations with stakeholders, throwing money at potential solutions that can be replicated widely.
“Higher education should serve more people better. It should be affordable; it should be accessible, and it should prepare people to thrive at home, at work, and in their communities,” Lumina President Jamie Merisotis said in a video.
It should, but the question of how we get there remains unclear.